Who Ya Got?
Time to pick one.
The first question is slightly interesting but the second question here and everywhere is more important. What do you think relative to what’s priced in? The first level thought “Seattle (or New England) will win” is just an assertion devoid of much content. There is no comparative advantage in observing widely known attributes that you have to pay for.
The second level thought “Seattle (or New England) is undervalued relative to the market” if backed by data, evidence, and logic, is the more edgy and actionable one. Markets don’t just facilitate transactions and assign value, they also convey the best current information while framing the most useful communication.
Question three is the crux. Once you have a view that’s differentiated relative to the markets, you conceivably have an edge over the odds. Now act on it or it didn’t mean anything. Go big on a big edge. Go no smaller than a $25 flyer (that offers that money back) on any view at all for a first time wager. Get as expected value rich as you can.
I was in Vegas last month, and MGM Bets offered a $250 match for my $250 deposit. I paid $260 cash and made the bet on a crazy parlay, Black Hawks v. Bolts. 3 of their people were hovering around me as I made it. It didn't hit. I wasn't provided the bonus, and when I reached out, the representative blamed me for not clicking something when I made the bet. They may have a lot of splainin' to do if they don't honor the deal. The Nevada gaming Comission no likey that. Plus, I live in FL and have stranded money there. I hope Kalshi is more honorable. Bet the Seahawks, tho I'm a Bears fan, so I got no real dog in the fight...
Profit no matter the outcome via matched betting arbitrage