Super Bowl Sure Bets
2 sure things for Sunday
Don’t blind out in life.
Almost everything is a gamble. What’s important isn’t avoiding risk. What’s important is understanding it, measuring it, making bets with positive expected value, and sizing them accordingly. Judge yourself on the setup you find and act on. Judge yourself no harsher (or gentler) based on the outcome.
Last Call
Here’s a bet that you can only lose by not making. Today is the last call because bank transfers can take 3-5 days, so if you wait until tomorrow it could be too late. Deposit $25 in Kalshi and bet $25 on your favorite team (I bet on the Seahawks). Bet only that $25 and get 100% of that $25 back in a sign up bonus. If you bet with me on Seattle and win you get a $38 payout + $25 bonus for $63. Lose? You tie after the bonus. Bet against me on New England and get a $72 payout if you’re right and another $25 for $97 if you win and tie if you lose.
There are a lot of unknowns about the Super Bowl. But there are two sure things.
A freeroll has positive expected value.
The game will be more fun with a bet.
Here is my Super Bowl portfolio:
And my favorite Super Bowl bet for 2026:
Here’s the part where I normally add,
Think for yourself. Do your own work.
Buyer (always) beware.
Don’t. Instead just do this one.
Deposited $25, then when I placed my bet Kalshi would would only allow a $24.88 bet. Contacted them with a detailed explanation of what occurred. Since customer support is AI it's response was quite useless. So I decided to play it safe and deposited an additional $10 (the minimum). I enjoy following your lead and getting all these bonuses, but always wonder why the apps/websites are so user-unfriendly: isn't the point of the bonuses to get you to try it and then stick around?
Is the Seahawk bet based on their being favored and therefore, more likely you'll get your money back . . . the idea being you want to place a safe bet to get the bonus? Or do you just like the Seahawks?
Mahooooooomes!